Cross-border trucking traffic between the US and Mexico registered a new record high in September. Ahead of the November presidential election, trade between the two North American powerhouses has ramped up by 52% and 30% year-over-year in September alone. 

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The first seasonal restocking spike took place in preparation for Halloween. Big box chains such as Lowe’s and Home Depot will soon be preparing for Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday decor, and supply chain stability is now being prioritized over cost savings. This has led retailers to eschew just-in-time, low-inventory restocking for increased stability and less volatility. 

Chinese companies with manufacturing centers in Mexico have contributed to the boom in trucking traffic. Former President Donald Trump’s tariffs in 2018 led many Chinese firms to establish themselves in Mexico, thus circumventing the pricey import duties. While technically legal, the Biden and former Trump administrations have expressed frustration over this “back door” entry to the US. For retailers, however, large supplies of Chinese imports aid in maintaining inventory stability during periods of peak demand, especially when it comes to perishable items such as food. 

Should Trump prevail in November, he has promised to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Tariffs are now popular with both parties, with Trump campaigning for a 20% tariff on goods from every country. China, especially, could be levied anywhere from 60% to 100%. A Trump win would likely result in a flood of imports ahead of his swearing-in. 

Uber Freight is one of many firms benefiting from this trucking uptick. The transport division registered a 77% year-over-year increase and maintains operations in roughly 75% of Mexican customs ports. 

Regardless of who wins the White House, nearshoring is likely to continue, and China will do its best to avoid costly tariffs. Despite the brisk trucking trade, however, the overall US freight trucking industry has been mired in stagnant freight prices over a challenging 2024. Long-term growth projections remain positive but are not expected until the end of 2025.