The 2025 Ocean Outlook report from Xeneta signals a challenging year ahead for container shipping, warning of heightened geopolitical risks that could disrupt global supply chains. “The lights are flashing red on the geopolitical dashboard, and it would be foolish to ignore them,” Xeneta cautions.

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If 2024 was marked by conflict in the Red Sea, similar threats could persist in 2025, with no sign of stability that would allow the safe return of container vessels to the region. Detours around Africa have stretched TEU-mile demand, and while new ships and slower growth in TEU volume may help ease some pressure, they won’t compensate for another major disruption. Geopolitical concerns range from the possibility of conflict escalation in the Taiwan Strait to potential unrest in Bangladesh and worsening conditions in the Middle East, particularly around the Persian Gulf.

Key Market Trends in 2025

Xeneta notes that spot rates have softened from their July peak as the long-term market trends upward. This narrowing gap between spot and long-term rates will be critical as contract negotiations for 2025 approach. While shippers hope for further narrowing, carriers aim to keep spot rates elevated to secure favorable terms.

Demand for container shipping is projected to grow by three percent in 2025, down slightly from the 4-5 percent growth in 2024, which will break the 180 million TEU mark. Trade from China to Mexico, however, continues to soar, driven by tensions between China and the U.S. and Mexico’s role as a “backdoor” for avoiding U.S. tariffs. Year-to-date, TEU demand between China and Mexico has surged 22.1 percent compared to 2023, following a 34.6 percent jump in 2023. Demand is also up between China and the Middle East, where volumes have risen 52 percent since 2021.

Influence of U.S. Elections and Shifting Alliances

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election could reshape the container shipping landscape, with potential new tariffs on Chinese imports prompting shippers to reconsider supply chain routes and possibly increase imports from Mexico. “2024 saw heavy frontloading of cargoes and extended sailing distances, which could change in 2025, presenting a risk to demand unless conditions become even more volatile,” says Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta.

Shifts in shipping alliances will impact network choices in 2025, with OCEAN Alliance, Gemini, and Premier Alliance all adjusting routes and port calls. For instance, MSC is expected to dominate Far East–Antwerp routes with four weekly calls, compared to one from Premier Alliance and none from Gemini. Shippers may need to reassess their carrier choices based on cost, reliability, and port access, and Sand advises them to keep options open and hold carriers accountable for service quality.

After a turbulent 2024, shippers are hoping for smoother seas in 2025. However, Xeneta urges caution, warning them to stay prepared for further disruptions and challenges in the year ahead.