IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Fats And Oils Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the revenue of the fat and oil market in the U.S. amounted to $10.6B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, fat and oil consumption continues to indicate a decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the market value decreased by -4% year-to-year. Fat and oil consumption peaked at $18.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

U.S. Fat And Oil Production

In value terms, fat and oil production totaled $10.5B in 2018. In general, fat and oil production continues to indicate a decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with a decrease of -4% year-to-year. Over the period under review, fat and oil production reached its peak figure level at $18.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, shortening and cooking oils ($9.1B) constituted the leading product category. The second position in the ranking was occupied by margarine, butter blends, and butter substitutes ($1.3B).

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the production volume of shortening and cooking oils stood at -11.4%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: margarine, butter blends, and butter substitutes (-6.6% per year) and other fats and oils refining and blending (+20.4% per year).

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of fats and oils exported from the U.S. stood at 22K tonnes, surging by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2013 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil exports increased by +126.1% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 47% year-to-year. In that year, fat and oil exports attained their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fat and oil exports stood at $26M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last five years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil exports increased by +115.0% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 39% against the previous year. In that year, fat and oil exports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Libya (5.9K tonnes), Egypt (3.1K tonnes) and India (3K tonnes) were the main destinations of fat and oil exports from the U.S., with a combined 55% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by India (+270.1% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Libya ($5.1M) emerged as the key foreign market for fat and oil exports from the U.S., comprising 19% of total fat and oil exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($2.3M), with a 8.6% share of total exports. It was followed by Egypt, with a 8.2% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value to Libya was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: India (+201.4% per year) and Egypt (0.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average fat and oil export price stood at $1,210 per tonne in 2018, going down by -5.7% against the previous year. Over the last five-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 an increase of 23% year-to-year. The export price peaked at $1,283 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was South Korea ($4,008 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Egypt ($690 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Korea, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the fat and oil imports into the U.S. stood at 55K tonnes, increasing by 18% against the previous year. In general, fat and oil imports continue to indicate a skyrocketing expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 42% y-o-y. Imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fat and oil imports totaled $154M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, the total imports indicated remarkable growth from 2013 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +20.1% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil imports increased by +80.1% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 18% y-o-y. In that year, fat and oil imports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Indonesia (16K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of fat and oil to the U.S., with a 29% share of total imports. Moreover, fat and oil imports from Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Spain (6.1K tonnes), threefold. India (5.9K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 11% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Indonesia stood at +105.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Spain (+81.4% per year) and India (+8.4% per year).

In value terms, Indonesia ($49M) constituted the largest supplier of fat and oil to the U.S., comprising 32% of total fat and oil imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Malaysia ($15M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by India, with a 7.6% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Indonesia stood at +113.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Malaysia (+52.6% per year) and India (+9.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average fat and oil import price amounted to $2,774 per tonne, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the fat and oil import price continues to indicate an abrupt decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 26% year-to-year. The import price peaked at $3,840 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Germany ($7,513 per tonne), while the price for Ecuador ($1,043 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform