Recent data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reveals that consumer spending in the US has not experienced a sudden surge, supporting the idea that the early peak season for container goods is driven more by front-loading of imports than by an increase in consumer demand.

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According to Sea-Intelligence, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rate for ‘durable goods’ declined sharply in early 2024 and, despite a recovery, has not reached 2023 levels. Conversely, spending on ‘non-durable goods’ has shown consistent growth since late 2022, but there has been no unexpected spike in consumer spending during late spring and early summer of 2024.

The only notable rise in consumer expenditure within the ‘goods’ category is in ‘recreational goods and vehicles,’ which jumped from 10.2% in 2019 to 15.1% in June 2024. However, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, highlighted that this increase is primarily driven by ‘information processing equipment,’ such as ‘computer software and accessories,’ which do not rely on container shipping. As a result, the boost in consumer spending in this sector has not translated into significant growth for the container shipping industry.

Murphy emphasized that none of the categories supporting container shipping have seen substantial growth recently, suggesting that the uptick in container volumes in May and June was largely due to the front-loading of peak season cargo rather than a genuine surge in consumer demand. Additionally, the US Census Bureau reported no significant jump in container demand before the sharp rise in container spot prices.